2016 bellwether counties 2016 bellwether counties

In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. There are 391 such counties. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Outstanding. "They followed through the whole four years. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. 8. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. 5. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Their hopes are real. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. The divisions were everywhere. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? We believe this was a mistake. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. In 2020, a single. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Arapahoe County. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Lets find a coin, and flip it. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. 9. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Not a bad streak. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. 3. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Republicans have paid some attention. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. That report was issued on Nov. 12. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Have you looked at the results of these counties? Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating.